As we conclude 2025 and look toward 2026, the Edmonton real estate landscape is undergoing a significant transition. I had an opportunity to do a bit of a deep dive into the forecasts and data on the Edmonton market, pulling insights from both local and national sources. The primary narrative that is forming for 2026 is one of balance. Edmonton is solidifying its position as a rare market where financial sanity and wage growth remain aligned with housing costs.
Key Market Numbers: Late 2025 Snapshot
According to the REALTORS Association of Edmonton (RAE) November 2025 Market Report released earlier this month, the Greater Edmonton Area (GEA) has shifted from the high-velocity (and frankly, wacky) conditions of the previous year toward a more stable environment. I’ve already covered that in an update earlier this month, but as a recap:
Inventory Growth: Overall inventory is up 33.3% compared to late 2024.
Detached Average Price: $553,746, representing a modest 2.5% increase year-over-year for November (it usually sags this time of year, so this is normal)
Average Days on Market: Current listings are averaging 54 days on the market, providing buyers with the time for due diligence that was absent in 2024. Multiple offer situations have subsided as well. They do still occur, albeit with less frequency and rapacity. Homes in the sub-$500k range are generally listed more frequently, and take less time to sell than homes at higher price ranges.
The Affordability Audit: Income vs. Housing Prices
A critical metric for any market is the relationship between median earnings and housing costs. In 2024, the average detached home in Edmonton cost approximately 5.6 years of total household income. By late 2025, that ratio improved slightly to 5.5. This pertains only to single-detached home prices. When we average this ratio across all property types, the average drops to 3.4 years - by far the best for a major city in Canada.
This improvement occurred because Edmonton’s wage growth has slightly outpaced home price appreciation over the last 12 months. While other major Canadian hubs are seeing affordability continue to erode, Edmonton residents are effectively gaining purchasing power. The secret is out - folks that are being priced out of their homes in places like Vancouver and Toronto can move to Edmonton, buy a larger home with a yard, and have tens or even hundreds of thousands of dollars left over to seriously enhance their quality of life. As a bonus, our NHL team even makes it out of the second round once in a while!
The National Landscape: How Edmonton Stacks Up
The Edmonton Advantage is best understood by comparing our price-to-income ratios with other major Canadian cities. The following data is synthesized from the National Bank Housing Affordability Monitor and Ratehub.ca’s late 2025 analysis.
In cities like Vancouver or Toronto, residents must commit over a decade of total earnings to secure an average home. In Edmonton, that timeline is reduced by half. This remains the primary driver for interprovincial migration into Alberta. Keep in mind - this is total income. You won’t qualify for a mortgage if your total debt servicing ratio exceeds 44% so the income-to-cost metric is best viewed only as an overall indicator of a region’s average affordability.
The REMAX Canada 2026 Outlook: Renewed Momentum
The RE/MAX 2026 Canadian Housing Market Outlook suggests a national rebound in sales activity as consumer confidence returns.
Projected Sales Rebound: National home sales are projected to increase by 3.4% in 2026 as buyers who were sidelined by high rates in 2024-2025 re-enter the market.
Rising Buyer Confidence: A Leger survey commissioned by RE/MAX found that 10% of Canadians plan to purchase a home in the next 12 months, up from 7% earlier in the year.
Edmonton Market Status: REMAX Excellence and other REMAX brokerages in the region anticipate the city will remain in a balanced market throughout 2026, offering a healthy environment for both buyers and sellers. Balance doesn’t mean growth will slow or that the market is “crashing”. It does mean that there is more choice, more inventory, and more opportunity for both parties to negotiate. And that’s never a bad thing.
Interest Rates: The 2.25% Neutral Point
On December 10, 2025, the Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25%, signaling that interest rates have reached a neutral level intended to maintain 2% inflation.
For Edmonton buyers, this stability is a significant catalyst. Even with the slight rise in home prices, the monthly mortgage payment on an average detached home has dropped by roughly $250 per month compared to the peak rates seen in late 2024.
Infrastructure Watch: Valley Line West LRT
Value growth is often tethered to municipal infrastructure. The City of Edmonton’s 2025 LRT Update highlights major progress on the Valley Line West extension.
Key 2025 milestones included the completion of accelerated roadwork at Stony Plain Road and 149 Street. As these projects move toward their (planned) 2028 completion, neighborhoods along the route are positioned for long-term appreciation due to increased connectivity. For a deeper look at this, check out my article here or my video overview on YouTube.
What This Means for You
For the Buyer: The Return of Leverage
The increase in inventory by 33% marks a market flip. Buyers are no longer forced into unconditional offers. There is now sufficient supply to prioritize home inspections and financing clauses and to negotiate for fixes to be completed prior to condition removal. There is also more flexibility in closing terms and timelines.
For the Seller: Strategic Marketing
A balanced market requires a more sophisticated approach. With more competition, property presentation is paramount. High-resolution photography and virtual digital tours coupled with precision pricing based on localized data are now essential to avoid stagnant listings. If your agent isn’t willing to cover professional photography backed by paid digital marketing, open houses, flyer drops and more - what are you actually paying for?
There’s a reason I’ve averaged less than 2 weeks from listing to sold for my clients this year, and it’s not luck. Selling is a skill, and one that should be taken seriously.
For the Investor: High Cash-Flow Potential
With median rents in areas like Garneau and Chappelle reaching between $1,755 and $1,995 (Source: Zumper Edmonton Rent Research), and average condo prices remaining at $205,314, Edmonton continues to offer the most compelling price-to-rent ratios in Canada. Check out my blog articles on this topic elsewhere on this site.
FAQ: Edmonton 2026 Forecast
Q: Will home prices in Edmonton drop in 2026?
A: Projections from TD Economics suggest Alberta home prices will rise by approximately 4.4% in 2026. While inventory is higher, population growth prevents a significant price correction.
Q: Is it currently a Buyer’s or Seller’s market?
A: Edmonton has officially entered balanced territory. This is the healthiest environment for the real estate cycle, allowing for fair negotiations for both parties.
Q: Should I choose a Fixed or Variable mortgage?
A: I’m not a mortgage broker, but I can refer you to some excellent professionals that will guide you through the process from start to finish.
Ready to Master the 2026 Market?
The 2026 forecast is defined by opportunity for those who understand the data. Whether you are selling a registered historical landmark home in Glenora or buying your first home in Secord, you need a partner who values transparency and who can take the complex and simplify it, without watering it down. Check out what my clients have to say and reach out - you’ll be glad you did :o)
Call or Text Mike Pabian: 780-232-2064
Email: mike@pabianrealty.ca
YouTube: InsideEdmonton
Instagram: @pabianrealty
