Before we get into the guts of this topic, I need to disclose that I’m a happy DINK (dual income, no kids) and I wouldn’t have it any other way. I’m fully aware that I am contributing to Canada’s low birth rate. My bad.
On the immigration file, since becoming a REALTOR® I have helped folks from 6 continents find their forever homes. Grab the peanut butter because diversity is my jam!
The fact of the matter is that we, like average Canadians from coast to coast, are simply not having enough children to support the tax base even enough to maintain existing services and infrastructure. Canada’s birth rate is 1.26. This means that, without immigration, the population of Canada would be cut in half in just 2 generations.
So if you think that our country’s immigration policies are some grand conspiracy against blue collar workers, the work of some shady cabal, or a left wing scam, I’m here to tell you you’re wrong. It’s just math. In order to have a functioning health care system, social programs like the CPP and Service Canada, and infrastructure like roads, bridges, and air traffic controllers, we need people that pay taxes and contribute more to the economy than they take out. People pay taxes, and taxes fund the services we use every day, just by existing.
Regardless of what you believe and who you might think is out to “get you” today, the fact of the matter is that the Conservative Party, NDP, Liberal, Green and anyone else that forms government at any level in the next 100 years will have to solve the same problem - how do we maintain services when the population of Canada is not sustaining itself?
Where is Edmonton’s growth coming from?
First, let’s take a look at migration from other provinces.
Recently Edmonton has seen its highest net gain in inter-provincial migration in over 20 years. Here is the breakdown of the most recent data (2024–2025 cycle):
Please note that this inflow does not account for people moving out of Edmonton. When we factor in folks leaving, the net gain for 2024-2025 is about 11 742 people from just Ontario, BC and other places within Alberta.
What about the total population growth from all sources?
Annual Breakdown of Growth for the Edmonton Metropolitan Area (July to July):
2020 to 2021: +22,951 people
2021 to 2022: +40,314 people
2022 to 2023: +67,631 people
2023 to 2024: +91,282 people (The all-time record year - so far)
2024 to 2025: +50,700 people (Projected stabilization - the numbers aren’t in yet)
Total Increase (2020–2025): 272,878 new residents.
Why Edmonton? What’s so special?
If you’ve been reading my blogs, you know that Edmonton is the most affordable major city in Canada, far ahead of even Calgary, our closest (hockey-challenged) neighbour. But did you know that the average home in Calgary is now $200 000 more than the same home in Edmonton?
Residents in the Greater Toronto Area are trading in their $1.1M semi-detached homes in the GTA for detached luxury builds in Edmonton. In fact, the average home price in Toronto just hit $1.3M. For that much money, you could purchase one of many $1M luxury homes available in Edmonton and still have enough left over for a brand new Ferrari Roma. Or heck, skip the car and treat yourself to an early retirement - you’ve got equity now!
Vancouver speaks for itself with the average detached home now selling for over $2M. You either need to be rich or settle for a shoebox to live anywhere near the Vancouver metropolitan area, and it’s a dream that isn’t even worth disappointing yourself with for an entire generation of folks in BC’s capital. I’m a huge fan of the Vancouver area, but it’s just out of reach for the vast majority of people with no signs of relief coming.
In addition to home prices, Edmonton also boasts several highly regarded educational institutions including the University of Alberta, NorQuest, MacEwan University and NAIT, which cumulatively attract tens of thousands of tomorrow’s leaders, healthcare professionals, IT professionals, engineers and skilled labour. Many end up falling in love or finding gainful employment and end up choosing Edmonton as a place to start their careers and grow a family.
We also don’t have HST, which is nice.
Moving to Alberta used to be Canada’s "best-kept secret," but if the traffic on the Henday or the line-ups at Sunday brunch are any indication, the secret is officially out.
At Pabian Realty, I’m seeing a fascinating mix of new faces from cool places these days. Some are lifelong Albertans looking for their first home, some are retirees moving from Ontario or B.C. for a breath of fresh air (and a smaller mortgage), and others are brand new to Canada, looking to plant roots in the City of Champions.
With all this growth comes a big question: Is the influx of people making it harder for everyone to find a home? We’re doing a deep dive into the policies, the data, and the myths to give you the full picture of the 2026 Alberta housing landscape.
The Policy Deep Dive: Why the sudden surge?
The growth we've seen wasn't an accident; it was the result of two different "playbooks" running at the same time:
1. The Federal "Growth & Stabilization" Plans
In 2022, the federal government launched an ambitious Immigration Levels Plan to bring in roughly 500,000 permanent residents annually. The goal was to combat Canada’s aging demographic—with nearly 9 million "Baby Boomers" hitting retirement age by 2030, the economy needed more taxpayers to support healthcare and infrastructure as mentioned in the intro of this article.
However, as housing supply struggled to keep up, the federal government pivoted in late 2024 to a Stabilization Plan. This included:
The Student Cap: A national limit on international study permits, which reduced new arrivals by roughly 35%
Target Reductions: The 2025–2027 plan actually decreased the target for permanent residents for the first time in decades, aiming for 395,000 in 2025 (down from the original 500,000 goal).
2. The Provincial Recruitment
While the federal doors were open, the Alberta government was running the "Alberta is Calling" campaign. By highlighting that our average home prices were a fraction of those in Toronto or Vancouver, they successfully convinced thousands of high-earning professionals to pack their bags and head east of the Rockies. I’d like to take this opportunity to remind the more vocal of my readers that this was not, in fact, an NDP led initiative. Like I said earlier, it’s just math, and Jason Kenney was Premier at this time.
Are citizens being priced out?
This is the "elephant in the room." When demand goes up and supply stays the same, prices rise. According to the Alberta Real Estate Association (AREA), the benchmark price for a home in Alberta has seen steady year-over-year increases, with Calgary and Edmonton leading the charge.
The Reality Check:
The Inter-provincial Effect: People moving from Ontario/BC often arrive with significant equity from selling expensive homes. This allowed them to bid aggressively, making "bidding wars" more common in neighborhoods that hadn't seen them in a decade.
The Affordability Advantage: While local prices are climbing, Alberta remains significantly more affordable than the national average. As of early 2026, the "affordability gap" is narrowing, but Alberta still offers a level of homeownership that is simply out of reach in Canada’s other major hubs.
So no, citizens aren’t being priced out. Citizens with more equity from other places are coming here and purchasing homes because we’re a great place to live. It’s supply and demand, simple as that.
Can Newcomers even buy houses? (The "Three Keys" to Eligibility)
There is a common misconception that international migration is driven by wealthy offshore investors. However, Canada’s Foreign Buyer Ban (the Prohibition on the Purchase of Residential Property by Non-Canadians Act) was recently extended through January 1, 2027.
Many people ask: Do I have to meet every requirement to buy a house? The answer is no. You only need one of these "keys" to be eligible to buy:
Key 1: Citizen or Permanent Resident (PR) status. If you have this, you have the same rights to buy as anyone else.
Key 2: A Valid Work Permit. Under the 2023 amendments, if you have 183 days or more remaining on your work permit and haven't purchased a property in Canada yet, you are eligible to buy. You do not need to be a PR yet but you do need to still meet the requirements for the CMHC including all of the same metrics that anyone else in Canada is subject to - a down payment, steady income, and a healthy debt ratio.
Key 3: Specific Exemptions. This applies to refugees (who are generally exempt) or international students who meet strict residency and tax-filing requirements (typically 5 years in Canada).
Pabian Pro-Tip: Most of our "new-to-Canada" clients are actually workers and families who are here to stay. They aren't "foreign investors"; they are your new coworkers and the families moving in next door. In my experience (I’ve spent over 10 years as a professional recruiter), newcomers to Canada are highly educated, work their tails off, and take roles that born-and-raised folks like myself can’t or don’t want to take on. They may also be escaping war zones, genocides, political violence and even state-sponsored massacres - not unlike the grandparents of so many born-and-raised Canadians did in WW2.
Simply put, if your worldview is coming from the YEGWave comments section, I’m not your guy.
The 2026 Outlook: A Rebalancing Act
The data suggests we are finally moving into a stabilization phase. Federal caps on temporary residents and the natural cooling of the "Alberta is Calling" rush have slowed the population growth rate from its record 4.4% peak in 2023–24.
At the same time, Alberta has seen record-high housing starts. In 2025, builders worked double-time to get more supply onto the market. For buyers, 2026 is looking like a year of "more choice." We aren't seeing a massive drop in prices - in fact, they’re still going up in Edmonton - but the frantic pace of 2023 has evolved into a more balanced market where you can actually take a breath before putting in an offer.
The Pabian Perspective: A Warm Welcome
Growth brings challenges, but it also brings vitality. More people means more small businesses, more culture, and a stronger provincial economy. When you notice new faces from different places moving into your community, be thankful - your new neighbors are here to support the economy, not take your way of life away. In fact, your way of life depends on new people coming here in large numbers. Our economy depends on it.
I believe there is room for everyone—whether you’re a fifth-generation Albertan or you just stepped off a plane at YEG yesterday. If you’re feeling overwhelmed by the economic headlines, let’s chat. We’ll look at your specific neighborhood and unique situation and help you find a place to call home.
Sources & Data:
Statistics Canada: Quarterly Population Estimates and Inter-provincial Migration Tables (2023-2025).
IRCC: 2025–2027 Immigration Levels Plan (The Stabilization Plan).
Alberta Real Estate Association (AREA): 2025 Annual Market Report & 2026 Forecast.
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC): 2025 Housing Market Outlook (Alberta Supplement).
Government of Canada: Prohibition on the Purchase of Residential Property by Non-Canadians Act (and 2023/2024 Amendments).
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